Strategic Collective Training Program (SCTP)
Convenor: Dr Vira Ratsiborynska
Contact: sctp@apsisummit.com or budfin@apsisummit.com

Objectives:

-To understand Strategic Foresight Analysis and comprehensive institutional approaches to contemporary security threats

-To unpack global issues and security trends and provide an understanding of the use of SFA in a current security environment. 

- To anticipate changing character of warfare, and to take smart risks

Duration: 12 weeks, once a week (two hours/ week) 
Intake: July 25 - October 10

Week 1. Strategic Foresight Analysis and threat assessment
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, SGM Anthony Spadaro (Ret)
-Trend analysis method vs Emerging issues analysis method
- Stages of development for trend and emerging issues 
-  Assess whether trend analysis and emerging issues analysis are valuable or not
-  Threat assessment approach
- STEEPLED, STEEP, PEST, PESTLE, VERGE
- Types of SFA reports

Week 2. NATO’s strategic approaches to security. Morphing nature of the threats and importance of Strategic Foresight Analysis
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, SGM Anthony Spadaro (Ret)
- NATO's strategic approach
-  Morphing nature of threats
-  Forecasting and backcasting
-  Prospective method
-  Connecting future to strategy

Week 3. NATO, EU, and other international organizations. How do we use Strategic Foresight Analysis?
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, MGen Gert-Johannes Hagemann (Ret)
- Collective Defence and international organisational approaches to security: An overview
-  Calculating risks and rewards
- SFA and strategy development
- Challenges in SFA

Week 4. NATO’s 360-degree approach and adaptation process.
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsiborynska, General Sir James Everard
- 360 degree approach and adaptation process
- Strengths of strategists
- NATO Concept for the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area
- Domain Sub-Strategic

Week 5: Strategic Insight for Foresight Analysis: Methodology
Lecturers: Dr Anita Abbott, Paul Cobaugh 
-  Scaffolding method vs multiple horizon approach
-  Interpretive approach
-  How to identify the others' endgames: Strategic Insight
-  Strategic conversation
-  Narrative Strategy, Scenario thinking

Week 6: Russia, China and SFA. What do we learn and how do we identify threats?
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, Rodger Baker 
-  Sino-Russia relations: An overview
- Backcasting and forecasting
-  Flash foresight and its triggers
- A new look at scenarios
- Thinking about the future

Week 7: Balance of power and threats in the Asia-Pacific region 
Lecturers: Dr Anita Abbott, SGM Anthony Spadaro 
- Balance of power and threats in the Asia-Pacific region: An introduction
- Infusing strategic thinking with foresight
-  Barriers to SFA
- Meeting the challenges of the future

Week 8:  Hybrid Threats and Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Challenges 
Lecturers: MGen Gert-Johannes Hagemann , Dr Vira Ratsiborynska
- Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Challenges
- When SFA meets Artificial Intelligence and hybrid conflict
-  A strategy that outsmarts complacency

Week 9:  New tactics and direction of global war
Lecturers: Dr Anita Abbott, MGen Ravi Arora 
- Strategies: grand, regional, national, transnational, and individual strategies
- Emerging signals
- Whirlwind strategy
- Challenging status quo thinking

Week 10: Institutional approaches to contemporary security threats
Lecturers: Dr Joanna Siekiera, Dr Fabrizio Bozzato, Dr Jesus Domingo 
-  Institutional approaches to contemporary security threats
- Foresight based policy analysis
-  SFA for multilateral policy

Week 11: Table top exercise. Simulation of the crisis scenario and use of SFA in practice
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, Vice Admiral (Ret) Paul Bennett (TBC)
-  Doctrine and concept, and high readiness force: The need for SFA
- Top table exercise and simulation
- Course members' presentation

Week 12. Review and lessons learnt for the future crisis management
Lecturers: MGen Gert-Johannes Hagemann (Ret), TBA
- Review and Lessons Learned
- Course members' presentation on their SFA models