APSI COE

APSI COE focuses on security crisis management, and research innovation for maximising strategic and resilience partnerships

Preparatory Action for Research on Strategic Studies (PARSS)

APSI COE preparatory action for research on strategic studies relates to the study of conflict and peace strategies, analyses areas of enquiry in strategic studies, and explores why and how a state interacts with other actors.

The preparatory action for research on strategic studies utilises APSI summits and consortiums, and selected webinars/seminars.  PARSS endeavours to provide a blueprint for evaluating and improving current strategies.

Strategic Collective Training Program (SCTP)

Convenor: Dr Vira Ratsiborynska
Contact: sctp@apsisummit.com or budfin@apsisummit.com

SCTP offers a high level training program which will be taught by academics and military professionals. It is designed to enable an advanced-level audience and specialists to stay informed and anticipate future security trends. 

All participants of the Strategic Collective Training program will receive a completion certification after the program.

Objectives:

-To understand Strategic Foresight Analysis and comprehensive institutional approaches to contemporary security threats

-To unpack global issues and security trends and provide an understanding of the use of SFA in a current security environment. 

- To anticipate changing character of warfare, and to take smart risks

The overall objective of the program is to provide understanding of Strategic Foresight Analysis and comprehensive institutional approaches to contemporary security threats in the changing and challenging globalized security environment. Participants of the program will be able to think at strategic level in the framework of the international security and international relations concepts. On the practical level, the program also focuses on strengthening specific skills such as researching, teamwork and public speaking, presentations, and crisis management exercise.

By the end of the course, the participants will have a firm grasp of:

in terms of substantive knowledge:
• Understanding of the Strategic Foresight Analysis and application of SFA in practice; 
• A set of international security matters, to determine the issues at stake and the role of international organizations in the management of conflicts;
•  Conceptual skills on SFA, security trends and be able to anticipate future challenges and how they affect your business practices and strategies;

 In terms of skills:
• how to examine, understand, synthesize and apply core strategic issues on SFA, the transatlantic relations and strategic policy making;
• how to carry out independent, in-depth research using a wide range of sources;
• demonstrate effective crisis management and oral presentation skills. 

In terms of attitudes, participants should develop in this course: 
• critical attitudes, which are necessary for “life-long learning”
• an attitude of open-mindedness and self-critical reflection with a view to self-improvement 
• sensibility towards the ethical dimensions of different aspects of the content of this course  
• an open attitude towards inter-cultural teamwork

Main course materials:
The course material consists of PowerPoint presentations and lecture notes. PowerPoint presentations will be made available after the respective classes have taken place. A week-by-week mandatory readings will be delivered to participants after each lecture. 

After the registration, the participants will receive a link to the lectures.

Duration: 12 weeks, once a week (two hours/ week) 
Intake: TBA

Week 1. Strategic Foresight Analysis and threat assessment
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, SGM Anthony Spadaro (Ret)
-Trend analysis method vs Emerging issues analysis method
- Stages of development for trend and emerging issues 
-  Assess whether trend analysis and emerging issues analysis are valuable or not
-  Threat assessment approach
- STEEPLED, STEEP, PEST, PESTLE, VERGE
- Types of SFA reports

Week 2. NATO’s strategic approaches to security. Morphing nature of the threats and importance of Strategic Foresight Analysis
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, SGM Anthony Spadaro (Ret)
- NATO's strategic approach
-  Morphing nature of threats
-  Forecasting and backcasting
-  Prospective method
-  Connecting future to strategy

Week 3. NATO, EU, and other international organizations. How do we use Strategic Foresight Analysis?
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, MGen Gert-Johannes Hagemann (Ret)
- Collective Defence and international organisational approaches to security: An overview
-  Calculating risks and rewards
- SFA and strategy development
- Challenges in SFA

Week 4. NATO’s 360-degree approach and adaptation process.
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsiborynska, General Sir James Everard
- 360 degree approach and adaptation process
- Strengths of strategists
- NATO Concept for the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area
- Domain Sub-Strategic

Week 5: Strategic Insight for Foresight Analysis: Methodology
Lecturers: Dr Anita Abbott, Paul Cobaugh 
-  Scaffolding method vs multiple horizon approach
-  Interpretive approach
-  How to identify the others' endgames: Strategic Insight
-  Strategic conversation
-  Narrative Strategy, Scenario thinking

Week 6: Russia, China and SFA. What do we learn and how do we identify threats?
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, Rodger Baker 
-  Sino-Russia relations: An overview
- Backcasting and forecasting
-  Flash foresight and its triggers
- A new look at scenarios
- Thinking about the future

Week 7: Balance of power and threats in the Asia-Pacific region 
Lecturers: Dr Anita Abbott, SGM Anthony Spadaro 
- Balance of power and threats in the Asia-Pacific region: An introduction
- Infusing strategic thinking with foresight
-  Barriers to SFA
- Meeting the challenges of the future

Week 8:  Hybrid Threats and Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Challenges 
Lecturers: MGen Gert-Johannes Hagemann , Dr Vira Ratsiborynska
- Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Challenges
- When SFA meets Artificial Intelligence and hybrid conflict
-  A strategy that outsmarts complacency

Week 9:  New tactics and direction of global war
Lecturers: Dr Anita Abbott, MGen Ravi Arora 
- Strategies: grand, regional, national, transnational, and individual strategies
- Emerging signals
- Whirlwind strategy
- Challenging status quo thinking

Week 10: Institutional approaches to contemporary security threats
Lecturers: Dr Joanna Siekiera, Dr Fabrizio Bozzato 
-  Institutional approaches to contemporary security threats
- Foresight based policy analysis
-  SFA for multilateral policy

Week 11: Table top exercise. Simulation of the crisis scenario and use of SFA in practice
Lecturers: Dr Vira Ratsibornyska, Vice Admiral (Ret) Paul Bennett 
-  Doctrine and concept, and high readiness force: The need for SFA
- Top table exercise and simulation
- Course members' presentation

Week 12. Review and lessons learnt for the future crisis management
Lecturers: MGen Gert-Johannes Hagemann (Ret), Dr Jesus Domingo
- Review and Lessons Learned
- Course members' presentation on their SFA models

Library

Welcome to Iconic Bibliotheca 

Iconic Bibliotheca is inexpensive online collection of workbooks, essays, course reading/required texts, e-courses, monthly analysis, strategy building templates, book reviews, and strategic insight for foresight analysis models. Iconic Bibliotheca library is provided by SIFFA, and is free for APSI course members.

 

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